Russia's natural resources

An interesting article today in the Orlando Sentinel (via RealClearPolitics) highlights Europe's growing dependence on Russian oil and gas.

A confluence of circumstance and geography is making Europe dangerously dependent on Russian oil and natural gas for its survival.

Already, 50 percent of the oil burned in Europe and 30 percent of the natural gas comes from Russia. The natural gas percentage is likely to rise dramatically with the new northern pipeline, under the Baltic Sea, extending all the way to Britain. Some countries, such as Germany, are likely to become entirely dependent on Russia for gas. They will also be dependent on Russia for some of their electricity because most new electric generation that has been installed relies on gas turbines.

The effect of Russia's energy dominance of Europe is a massive geopolitical change, binding Europe to Russia at the expense of its old alliances.

The Russian penetration of the European markets has been coming for years and has raised alarms in foreign policy circles, but has failed to change the course of Europe's tilt toward Russia. Those European countries that were once under Soviet domination are particularly alarmed at the new Russian hegemony, and some have fought against it.

Ironic that Russia might achieve the strategic geopolitical prominence the Soviets sought not through the nuclear missiles planted in her soil, but through her natural resources buried in it.

There is a race going on here, though. Will Russia's worsening economic and demographic problems overwhelm any benefits derived from her control of valuable energy resources? Or will these resources allow Russia to reverse some of these troubling trends? Time will tell.

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Jim Hoagland of the WaPo looks at Putin's approach to Russia's challenges.