Georgian-Russian relations continue to deteriorate

An article from The Power and Interest News Report says relations between Georgia and Russia are at an all-time low after the second anniversary of the Rose Revolution.

When Moscow helped resolve the stand-off in Adjara in May 2004, many observers hoped it indicated a new thaw in Georgian-Russian relations. However, despite the May 2005 agreement to close the remaining Russian army bases on Georgian territory, there has been little in the way of diplomatic or political breakthroughs since the Rose Revolution brought President Mikhail Saakashvili to power.

Two incidents in November highlighted the growing tension between the two countries.

On November 16, the Russian Embassy in Georgia refused to grant Givi Targamadze, the head of the parliament committee for defense and security, a visa to attend a Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.) parliament meeting in St. Petersburg.
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Georgian-Russian relations took another blow on November 16 when Georgian State Minister for Conflict Resolution Giorgi Khaindrava walked out of negotiations with the South Ossetian leadership during the Joint Control Commission session in Ljubljana. Representatives from Moscow and South Ossetia proposed a three way meeting between presidents Putin, Saakashvili and the leader of the unrecognized republic, Eduard Kokoiti, which Tbilisi maintains is an unacceptable attempt to legitimize the Tskhinvali leadership. On November 17, Tskhinvali refused a Georgian proposal to meet with Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli.

The conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia continue to exacerbate Georgian-Russian relations. While Russia allegedly guarantees regional peace and security through its peacekeepers stationed in the conflict zone, Tbilisi accuses Moscow of actively working to destabilize the situation and of supporting the separatist leaders in their quest for independence. Saakashvili and his administration have repeatedly called for international monitoring of the conflict and a more active role for E.U. and U.S. observers in brokering a peace agreement between Tbilisi and the separatist leaders. Meanwhile, Moscow maintains that only it has the power and the influence to broker a peace deal.

I've had a couple of posts recently about the gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, and I pointed out how Russia could use its control of significant portions of Europe's energy supply to wield influence over those nations.

Georgia has already witnessed this, and its experience provides a glimpse of what Russia might do in Europe.

Even as Moscow maneuvers to strengthen its energy corridors with Europe, the Black Sea region and the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan and Georgia are seeking alternatives to Russian gas and oil.

Georgia has actively sought energy independence from Russia for the past decade. To date, the country is completely dependent on Russia for its gas supply as well as the majority of its energy consumption. Russian oil giant Gazprom threatened Tbilisi with higher gas prices in fall 2005: US$110 (compared with the current US$62) per 1000 cubic meters starting in 2006.

Over the past decade Moscow has repeatedly resorted to power politics and left Georgia dark and cold in the winter. The long anticipated BTC oil pipeline from Baku-Ceyhan via Tbilisi opened this year and construction on the planned gas pipeline is underway. According to current plans, Georgia will receive substantial amounts of gas from the pipeline as transit fees, as well as discounted rates for additional supplies. Tbilisi tried negotiating possible gas imports from Kazakhstan, but this plan was blocked by Moscow when Russia refused to give Georgia permission to use their pipeline.