Sands through the hourglass

Regime Change Iran links to an article at the Jerusalem Post that has some unsettling news...

IAEA chairman Muhammad ElBaradei on Monday confirmed Israel's assessment that Iran is only a few months away from creating an atomic bomb.

If Teheran indeed resumed its uranium enrichment in other plants, as threatened, it will take it only "a few months" to produce a nuclear bomb, El-Baradei told The Independent.

On the other hand, he warned, any attempt to resolve the crisis by non-diplomatic means would "open a Pandora's box. There would be efforts to isolate Iran; Iran would retaliate; and at the end of the day you have to go back to the negotiating table to find the solution."

Juuust in case you missed it, from this blog Dec 1:

The most troubling implication of the sum of all the reports I've mentioned here is that Iran is nearing the end of its need for the diplomatic stalling tactics with Europe. It may be that the stalling has worked, Iran is close to completing its nuclear program, that Iran no longer needs the diplomatic niceties, but is now gathering allies for the confrontations that will come as the full scope of Iran's nuclear program is revealed.

MosNews reports that Russia is ready to build a second reactor in Iran:

Russia is capable of building a second nuclear power plant in Iran, top official at Russia’s atomic construction export company said on Monday.

The head of the Atomstroiexport’s department in charge of building nuclear power plants in Iran, Vladimir Pavlov, quoted by the RIA-Novosti news agency said that "if the Iranian side announces a tender for nuclear power plant construction, Atomstroiexport will take part in it because we have the ability to successfully erect one more nuclear power plant in Iran."
....
Earlier on Monday, Iranian state television said the country planned to construct a second nuclear power plant. Iran decided to build the plant in the south-western province of Khuzestan.

Previously Iran had said it would build a second power plant at Bushehr, where its first nuclear reactor built by Russia is due to begin generating electricity in 2006. The Iranian parliament is seeking the construction of 20 nuclear power plants despite international concern over its nuclear program.

Why shift the location of a second reactor? It is in keeping with Iran's strategy of spreading its nuclear program around the country so one attack, on one area, won't knock out a significant portion of the program.

Also, our good friends in Russia are selling Iran anti-aircraft missiles:

Russia has struck a deal to sell short-range, surface-to-air missiles to Iran, the defense minister said Monday, confirming reports that have raised concern in the United States and Israel.

Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov didn't give details. But Russian media have said that Moscow agreed in November to sell $1 billion worth of weapons to Iran, including up to 30 Tor-M1 missile systems over the next two years.
"A contract for the delivery of air defense Tor missiles to Iran has indeed been signed," Ivanov was quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency.

The fact Russia claims the missiles are merely "defensive" is laughable. By definition, surface-to-air anti-aircraft missiles are defensive. Could Iran be building up its air defenses in prepartions for any attacks that might come as nervous Western nations take to desperate measures to dismantle Iran's nuclear program?

Speaking of a timeframe of a few months, there was this from a Reuters report today:

Ali Larijani, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, told Reuters on Sunday that Tehran's patience regarding Western opposition to its nuclear program was wearing thin and it would give the EU only a few months to settle the matter through talks.

Asked how long Iran's patience and its commitment to a two-year-old voluntary suspension of uranium enrichment activities would last, he said: "A few months. We have a limited time framework for talks."

A "few months"? Coincidence? Is Iran signalling its timetable?

Just this weekend, the regime sent another signal that it wasn't interested in bowing to UN pressure:

On Saturday, Iran approved a bill that would block international inspections of its nuclear sites if it were referred to the Security Council. The step strengthens the government's hand in resisting international pressure to permanently abandon uranium enrichment, a process that can produce fuel for either nuclear reactors or atomic bombs.

While Iran has frozen its enrichment program, it restarted uranium conversion - a step toward enrichment - in August.

And once Iran perfects its waste processing capabilities, can you imagine an Iran with 20 nuclear plants?

Tick tick tick...

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Strata-Sphere has a lenghty and informative look at Iran and recent events.

Psycmeistr casts a keen eye on the topic as well.