Oriental Expressions of "Take that!"

How's this for a metaphor. Diplomacy is the art of stuffing one velvet glove with cotton balls, one velvet glove with brass knuckles, putting them on, but not letting your enemy know which hand is which.

The Sydney Morning Herald reports that next week in Sydney the US, Japan and Australia will hold a high-level security summit.

A security summit between the US, Japan and Australia in Sydney next week is expected to sharpen tensions with China, with deteriorating relations between Beijing and Tokyo high on the agenda.

The US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, will meet the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Alexander Downer, and their Japanese counterpart, Taro Aso, on Wednesday for the first ever ministerial-level security talks between the three countries.

Absent from this little garden party is China, which is part of this little game. Not inviting someone to the table is sometimes a diplomatic way of saying go jump in a lake. And indeed, the article quotes someone who sums up China's concerns:

The Herald understands the talks will focus on diffusing the threat posed to regional security by the continuing tensions between China and Japan. The intention is to send a strong message to Beijing that the US is still engaged in the region.

The ministers are expected to discuss concerns over the Taiwan Strait, as well as possible joint military exercises between the three countries.

Alan Dupont of the Lowy Institute, a body of international policy experts based in Sydney, believes the growing strategic rivalry between China and Japan could emerge as the gravest threat to regional security in the next five to 10 years.

"Politically the relationship is the worst I've seen in 30 years, and … it's deteriorating," he said.

"They're the two leading Asian powers so it's going to have implications for the North Korean nuclear issue and for Taiwan, and it's going to complicate strategic relations throughout the region."

But Dr Dupont also has reservations about the trilateral security dialogue, which has caused concerns with China in the past. He warned that the dialogue had to be managed to avoid upsetting the rapidly growing power.

Dr Dupont believes the raising of the talks from senior officials' level to a political level will cause even greater consternation among the Chinese. "[They] are concerned about it developing into something more formal than just a talkfest, and that it may be … directed against them," he said. "The more it becomes formalised, the more China's concerns are likely to grow."

These trilateral talks first began in 2002, but this is the first year they will involve foreign ministers. Such an esclation does not go unnoticed by governments, and nor do the three nations involved here wish it to.

Relations between China and Japan are not particularly good. Relations between China and the United States have a bit of an edge to them, with China's growing presence on the world stage, as I've mentioned.

As the article points out, the talks will serve notice that the three allies will not abandon the playing field in the Western Pacific to China.

The United States was a little miffed about being left out of talks a month ago in Malaysia involving 16 nations in southern and eastern Asia, and the western Pacific. These talks included China, Japan and Australia, but the United States did not even participate as an observer. (Russia requested to join, but no decision on that will be made till the next meeting of the association this coming December in Cebu, Philippines.)

So, these talks are a little poke back at the Chinese. If China has concerns, so be it. They can't have things both ways. They must know that the United States and her allies will take steps to protect their interests if China takes to steps to push its own interests. These kinds of summits are necessary to develop strategies.

At least the nations involved are playing games with tables and chairs, and not bullets.

(UPDATE 1/6: Breitbart reports that Rice has cancelled her trip to Indonesia and Australia to "keep watch on Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's fight for life". The trip might be rescheduled in March.)