Step by Step

I've mentioned before I view the process of bringing stability to Iraq as a series of steps that cannot be taken all at once. In 2003, Iraq was in the thrall of a brutal dictator. At some point we hope and expect Iraq to settle down into a stable nation, one able to defend itself.

There is a violent, murderous insurgency working to prevent Iraq from getting to its feet. That insurgency will need to be defeated. Iraq must get from "there" to "here".

What will those steps look like? To go from an insurgency operating from a position of strength to a point where even their Sunni base rejects their violent approach, there will be a gradual shift as the insurgents are squeezed out of their strongholds. The insurgency will weaken. This is the "in between state" as Iraq progresses from violence to peace.

And that is what is happening.

Last Friday, Lt. Gen. John Vines, commander general of the 18th Airborne Corps and for the last year the Multi-National Corps commander in Iraq, gave a video teleconference from Iraq. He said this:

"There has been significant change. Iraqis are increasingly in the lead. There is increasing level of sovereignty. They direct many of the operations. They control many of the operations. So the capacity of the Iraqi Security Forces is exponentially greater than when he departed and so that's something he's familiarizing himself with. And of course, that's a very good thing.

The level of coordination that's required with the Iraqi government has increased because they have additional competence in their ability to govern and to see to their own future, which is also a very good thing. Al Qaeda is increasingly in disarray and we have pursued, captured and killed a large number of them and so that also is a very positive thing."

About the Sunnis are their increasing disaffection with the insurgency, he said this:

"What we see are increasingly Sunni, in particular, rejecting terrorism and rejecting the presence of al Qaeda in Iraq. They realize that al Qaeda is not interested in their welfare, but they intend to impose their values on all Iraqis. And while they had received some level of support previously, many Iraqis, particularly Sunni, recognize the threat that al Qaeda poses to them and increasingly are rejecting their presence and they're no longer supporting them. And we think that is a very good thing indeed."

In the Jan 11 issue of This Week in Iraq, Gen. Casey said this:

"Foreign fighters are trying to foment sectarian tension during a vulnerable period, but will not bring Iraq to the brink of civil war. Clearly, recent attacks have been designed to take advantage of this vulnerable time during the formation of the government. However, we continually see that while there are a number of attacks, only 20-25 percent result in injury or damage. This stagnation over many months shows no increased capability by the terrorists and no increased support for their cause."

Iraq is proceeding through the steps we would expect to see as Iraq moves from chaos to a secure, stable country, able to govern and defend itself. Yes, it is a long road, a bumpy road with twists and potholes, but let's recognize the encouraging signposts along the way for what they are.