Is Iran stirring up trouble in Nigeria?

First of all, I'll say up front I cannot definitively answer that question in the affirmative. I pose the question to introduce speculation about possible motivations Iran might have for playing a role in the unrest in Nigeria's river delta region. I would not be at all surprised if the professionals are looking at this question. I just don't have access to the material needed to answer the question.

The unrest in the Niger River Delta goes back a few years. Nigerians living in the region have felt overlooked by their government, and have wanted a greater share of the oil profits being generated in the area.

Last October, the Nigerian government arrested Dokubo Asari, the leader of the Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force, a militant group that has been the most prominent in the region.

Since then, however, a new militant group calling itself the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has emerged as the most active in the region.

Since the beginning of the year, MEND has kidnapped foreign oil workers, and has attacked oil production facilities. The group's stated goal is to reduce Nigeria's oil output by one million barrels a day, which would be about a 50% drop. Output is already down 20% as a result of the violence. The group also has political demands.

The militants have demanded the release of two ethnic Ijaw leaders, compensation for oil pollution to delta villages and more autonomy over the region's huge oil income.

The Ijaw are the dominant tribe in the delta, where impoverished fishing villages play host to a multi-billion-dollar export industry.

Sabotage, kidnapping and ethnic killings have been common features of the Niger Delta for years, but diplomats say this new movement is better organized, better armed and has a more overtly political agenda than previous such groups.

These last characteristics are what have caught my eye about MEND. It has emerged in a fairly short period of time, and is organized and well-armed. Such organization does not spontaneously erupt. Who has been advising this group and leading the group?

Who is financing the group? It is certainly possible that the group is stealing oil from the pipelines in the delta and selling the oil. From the link above:

"We will bring the Nigerian government and oil companies to their knees," a spokesman for the militants, who uses the pseudonym Jomo Gbomo, said in an e-mail. He said the group "will continue with our campaign until our demands are met or until there is no drop of oil exported from Nigeria."

He estimated that 30,000 assault rifles remain in the region as the result of political battles here in recent years and that new weaponry continues to arrive. "Certainly the number of heavy weapons in the delta has increased dramatically in the last few years," Gbomo said.

He denied that the militants were using stolen oil to pay for their struggle, but one of the Niger Delta militant leaders who is in jail, Mujahid Dokubo-Asari, acknowledged the practice in an interview with Human Rights Watch in 2004. "I take that which belongs to me," Dokubo-Asari was quoted as saying. "It is not theft. The oil belongs to our people."

But is financing and expertise coming from outside Nigeria? And if so, could Iran be involved? If so, why?

Oil prices are up worldwide due in large part to two factors. Uncertainty over what will become of Iran's oil industry as international pressure grows over Iran's nuclear program, and the violence affecting Nigeria's oil industry.

Iran knows that high oil prices are a trump card in its hand as Iran has initiated a confrontation with the West over its drive for nuclear weapons, and Iran has publicly said as much on January 15th.

Iran stepped up its defiance of international pressure over its nuclear programme yesterday by warning of soaring oil prices if it is subjected to economic sanctions. As diplomats from the US, Europe, Russia, and China prepared to meet today in London to discuss referring Tehran to the UN security council, Iran's economy minister, Davoud Danesh-Jafari, said the country's position as the world's fourth-largest oil producer meant such action would have grave consequences.

"Any possible sanctions from the west could possibly, by disturbing Iran's political and economic situation, raise oil prices beyond levels the west expects," he told Iranian state radio.

The unrest in Nigeria is already having that effect on a smaller scale. Could Iran be aiding in the unrest as a means of fighting back as Iran is now being referred to the United Nations?

Such involvement would be classic Iranian strategy. Do not move openly, work in the shadows, do not confront directly but fight through proxies.

The governments of Iran and Nigeria certainly have had dealings for a long time. Did you know both countries are members of OPEC? Yesterday OPEC announced it would maintain its current output quota, and oil prices dropped on the announcement.

On Iran's part, there is no need yet to play its oil production card. It will wait and see what the UN does. But in the meantime, Iran has every reason to want to see Nigeria's oil production threatened. The unrest means higher prices, and it doesn't involve Iran directly. It accomplishes Iran's goal of punishing the West economically, and it is free of Iran's fingerprints.

Here is an example of how Iran and Nigeria maintain their ties. From a meeting last month:

Visiting Nigerian Foreign Minister Oluyemi Adeniji conferred here Tuesday with Majlis Speaker Gholam Ali Haddad Adel on issues of mutual interests.

According to the Press Bureau and Public Relations Department of the Majlis, at the meeting, Haddad Adel described the expansion of ties with African countries as among the blessings of the Islamic Revolution and said the Iranian Muslims have always respected African nations following the teachings of Islamic ideology which dignifies the status of human irrespective of their creed and color.

Expressing satisfaction with successful outcome of the second Iran-Nigeria Economic Commission meeting, he said expansion of relations with African and Muslims nations is on Iran's agenda.

Iran would not be so foolish as to court the Nigerian government on one hand, and openly act against it by encouraging the delta militants on the other. However, the Muslim angle could be a means by which Iranian assistance would be welcomed by militant elements in Nigeria. (Keep in mind there were violent riots in Nigeria as Muslims protested those Danish cartoons. Quite a few were killed.)

There have been rumbles in Nigeria that Nigerian President Obasanjo might seek a third term. Currently he is not permitted a third term by law.

Under the Nigerian constitution, Obasanjo must step down when his second and legally final term as president of the world's eighth biggest oil exporter ends in May 2007.

Obasanjo has said he will uphold the constitution and has spoken in the past of retiring to his chicken farm after he leaves the presidential villa.

But his allies have mounted a campaign for the constitution to be amended to allow Obasanjo stay and pursue his free-market economic reforms and a high-profile crackdown on graft.

There is a strong desire in the Muslim north to have a Muslim become President after Obasanjo. They feel it is their "turn" after eight years of rule by Obasanjo, a Christian from the south-west.

The militant groups in the Delta are not strictly Muslim, their motivations are more ethnic and economic in origin. Though, Muslim elements do exist. But, the militants do want to see Obasanjo's government severely damaged, as such, it is in the interests of the northern Muslims to see the unrest in the delta continue. Therefore, if Iran is involved, it may be doing so through these Muslim channels.