The Great Game is afoot in Central Asia

This week, President Bakiyev of Kyrgyzstan met with Russia's President Putin in Moscow. The meeting underscored an effort underway to gradually peel the Central Asian nations away from the US and into the orbit of Russia and China.

In the wake of 9/11, the US moved into bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to support the war effort in Afghanistan. However, after a crackdown in May 2005 in Andijan, Uzbekistan, that some reports say killed hundreds, the US severely critized Uzbek President Karimov, and last July Karimov asked the US to leave. The last US flight left that base in November.

Now, Kyrgyzstan is asking for a significantly higher rent from the US in order to remain on the base. Russia and China are trying to draw Bakiyev away from the US, to drive the US military out of the region.

At the same time, Moscow and Beijing make no secret of their interest in the faster withdrawal of the American contingent from the republic. Ganci air base located here remains the only military US foothold in the Central Asia. The further destiny of the base depends on the readiness of Washington to comply with the requirement of Bishkek regarding the increase of payment for its use. This was announced by Kurmanbek Bakiyev five days prior to his arrival in Moscow. However the growth of the economic activity of Russia and China in Kyrgyzstan can fully compensate the refusal of financial receipts from America. Experience of the neighbouring Uzbekistan particularly eloquently testifies to it.

A deadline of June 1 has been set to decide on the matter of rent.

Nine months after an Asian bloc dominated by Russia and China moved to set a time limit on the U.S. military presence in Central Asia, the last American airbase in the highly strategic region may be at risk.

If agreement is not reached by June 1 on a demand for a substantial increase in rent, the U.S. presence at Kyrgyzstan's Manas airbase will be terminated, the country's president, Kurmambek Bakiyev, has warned.

Bakiyev has spoken of a 100-fold increase in rent, to around $200 million a year, although other officials have quoted smaller figures. $200 million would be almost half of Kyrgyzstan's total annual budget.

Located at the airport in the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek, the airbase was established late in 2001, after al Qaeda attacked the U.S.

The "Asian bloc" referred to above is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This group was first formed in June 2001 with members Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The group primarily fosters trade cooperation, but also touches on other areas such as anti-terrorism efforts.

Last week, full membership was granted to Iran, Pakistan and India, who previously had been observers to the group. This, even though as recently as January the group was saying these countries would not be admitted as full members. The crisis with Iran has apparently sparked a change in thinking.

Visiting Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mohammadi told Itar-TASS in Moscow that the membership expansion "could make the world more fair". And he spoke of building an Iran-Russia "gas-and-oil arc" by coordinating their activities as energy producing countries. Mohammadi also touched on Iran's intention to raise the issue of his country's nuclear program and its expectations of securing SCO support.

The timing of the SCO decision appears to be significant. By the end of April the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to report to the United Nations Security Council in New York regarding Iran's compliance with the IAEA resolutions and the Security Council's presidential statement, which stresses the importance of Iran "reestablishing full, sustained suspension of uranium-enrichment activities".

The SCO membership is therefore a lifeline for Iran in political and economic terms. The SCO is not a military bloc but is nonetheless a security organization committed to countering terrorism, religious extremism and separatism. SCO membership would debunk the US propaganda about Iran being part of an "axis of evil".

Notice, however, that with the new additions, Afghanistan, home to the United States and NATO's little adventure, will be virtually surrounded by SCO member nations.

(Turkmenistan has not joined, as it maintains a stance of neutrality, but there certainly has been pressure on Turkmenistan to join the SCO.)

This is not by accident. Russia and China are making an effort to diminish US influence in the region by drawing together a bloc that can stand against a US presence. (And for Russia, keeping China close in a mutual membership helps prevent China from making independent deals with all these nations that could undercut Russia's energy sector.)

Above you'll note that energy deals are mentioned. The SCO will definitely seek to use oil and gas deals to tie members together.

The presence of India in the SCO is significant to US interests. However, India does not share a border with Afghanistan, and India, by necessity, is looking for energy partners in the region, partners that will mostly be SCO members.

This will be a challenge for the US, and for the nascent government in Afghanistan.

An excerpt above refers to the IAEA report on Iran. That report came out today. Vital Perspective has an excellent report on the contents. Among the highlights:

The IAEA report on the Iranian nuclear program is quite damning and points out the 20 years of Iran's deception and its total unwillingness to answer for conduct. It discloses that Iran has been working on advanced P-2 centrifuges – as Ahmadinejad bragged about last week – revealing a previously unknown secret track toward nuclear bomb fuel, outside of that which the IAEA had been following previously. P-2 centrifuges are more sophisticated and reliable, making it easier for Iran to ramp up the production of enriched uranium.

Their other work – on plutonium, recent successful work on the 164-centrifuge cascade and announcement last week of the production of enriched uranium – and their stated ambition to install 3,000 centrifuges over the next several months is extremely worrisome. You read it here first.

With just 1,500 centrifuges running in concert, Iran could produce enough fuel for a nuclear bomb in less than a year. Iranian officials have stated they will build a full-scale 3,000-centrifuge operation later this year, with the ultimate objective of deploying 54,000 centrifuges by the end of 2007.

Uncertain over the reaction from the US, Israel, and to a lesser extent Europe, Iran is seeking shelter in the loving arms of Russia and China who welcome any and all friend willing to oppose US power. The oil and gas produced by SCO members has a great deal of significance to Europe, and a nuclear-armed belligerent Iran would be an anchor for a fearsome pole of power seeking leverage over the West.

Given these growing challenges to our interests, who are President Bush and Congressional Republicans going after this week? Oil company execs. Yeesh.