Iran to world: "Drop Dead" Part II

Iran's top nuclear negotiator Dr. Ali Ardeshir Larijani, said today that Iran would consider withdrawing from the IAEA if sanctions are imposed. Larijani also once again warned that Iran might use oil as a weapon if pushed too far.

If you still harbor doubts that Iran would really use its nuclear program to build weapons, consider that Larijani is also the secretary-general of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, and hence Iran's national security chief. That Iran would put negotiations with the world in the hands of a security official ought to tell us that Iran views its security as tied to the nuclear program.

Larijani was once the head of the state-owned Radio and Television, and he is also a former commander in the Revolutionary Guard. In speaking to the Guard at the end of last year, Larijanu was quite defiant.

Speaking to Revolutionary Guard forces last Wednesday, Larijani put Iran's nuclear plans into broader context.

"Too many wrong signals were sent to the West [in the past two years]," Larijani said. "If Iran turns into a nuclear power, then no one dares to challenge it because they have to pay a heavy price."

A doctrine of "active political diplomacy" will increase Iranian power to "reach such a geopolitical position that makes others tolerate us," Larijani said. "Today it's time for resistance. Time passes, but we should not hesitate because a further waste of time is not to our benefit."

And today, Larijani is being defiant again. Last March 29, when the UN Security Council met on this matter, it set non-binding deadline for Iran to comply with the IAEA within a month. That deadline is up this Friday, and Iran is not showing signs of yielding.

It is curious that a couple weeks ago, on a program called Today's Encounter", which aired on Al Jazeera on April 10, Larijani, speaking in Persian, sang a different tune. (It was translated by the BBC Monitoring Service, but I don't have a link.)

[Larijani] In the name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate. Thank you for giving me this opportunity. The issue of the Iranian nuclear file gives a lesson to all countries, where peace and security should prevail and where people are supposed to live quietly. Iran is a country which shoulders its full international responsibilities. We are a member of the IAEA and we feel we have a responsibility towards our neighbours. We are sensitive to the pains of other peoples and we look for permanent security in the region...As I said, we are an IAEA member state and we have accepted the NPT. We consider this an international treaty that should be observed. As in the past, inspectors visit our nuclear facilities in Tehran and everywhere else. The IAEA's cameras are present. We have not committed any violation. Like any other IAEA member state, we have rights represented in possessing peaceful nuclear technology. Those who want to open their doors in violent directions must be careful. I am confident that the Iranian nuclear file can be solved through a positive channel. We are confident that through accurate and constructive dialogue we can solve this problem because we have nothing to hide and all our positions are monitored by the IAEA

The next day Larijani was in Saudi Arabia, meeting with officials there on security matters. The Saudis are no great friends of Iran, so it is curious that Iran has been making an effort to reach out to Arab nations since March 29. For instance, Rafsanjani visited Kuwait last week. There was a conference in Teheran devoted to expressing solidarity with the Palestinians.

All this may be an effort to pitch an argument to the Arabs that the United States is our mutual enemy, let us all band together at this time of confrontation. A nuclear Iran would greatly concern the Saudis, and Egypt, so Iran may be trying to assuage their fears. A darker interpretation is that Iran is preparing its terror networks in these countries.

Hence, the timing is curious that Osama bin Laden released a tape this week, and today Zarqawi released a videotape in which he appeared for the first time without covering his face.

Speculation here, but the recent developments in Iraq have not favored Iran's ambitions there. With Ibrahim Jaafari stepping aside as candidate for Prime Minister, a compromise candidate in the person of Jawad al-Maliki has stepped forward. Indications are that Maliki will not be Iran's stooge, but instead may break the deadlock that has existed in Iraq since the election, and start to bring peace between the various factions in Iraq.

A stable, democratic Iraq threatens Iran, and I do wonder if Iran whispered in certain ears that perhaps it was time for Osama and Zarqawi to speak out and try and stir up the pot.

Iran has been so belligerent in its push to develop nuclear weapons because it thinks it can. Europe has given every indication they are not willing to impose heavy sanctions on Iran. Russia and China have certainly been in Iran's corner. For its part, the United States has let Europe take the lead and has offered little more than rhetoric.

Iran believes its security is best served if the US is bogged down in Iraq, and not free to focus on Iran. As such a violent, unstable Iraq helps take the pressure off Iran. Zarqawi appeared amidst guns and ammunition and spoke of defeating the US in Iraq. Iran could not have been disappointed by Zarqawi's message.

Come Friday, the deadline will pass. The IAEA will make another report to the UN. The nations of the world will continue to dither, and barring a miracle, little will come of it.

It all comes down to whether or not the United States has the will to act now. Or not at all.

(Incidentally, I wrote of this before, but think back to when Iran allowed Denmark's mission in Teheran to be attacked, and toady Syria did the same in Damascus. The cartoons were great cover, but it is not outlandish to think Iran was looking ahead and sending Denmark a message. As things drag out, guess who will hold the presidency of the UN Security Council in June. Denmark.)