A primer on Iran
If you're looking for a good primer on Iran, the Foreign Policy Centre has provided one. This UK think tank describes Iran's system of government, examines its economy and foreign policy, and analyzes internal political forces.
The report is available here in PDF. (HT: Foreign Policy Passport)
The report is available here in PDF. (HT: Foreign Policy Passport)
5 Comments:
At Mon May 01, 06:56:00 PM, C-Low said…
I hope this analysis is wrong. I liked thier description of the Iranian nation internally but thier final conclusion is woefully unacceptable. This British group is long on hope and prayer and short on reality of the situation and world we find ourselves in. Sounded to me like “if we could just all get along” type of BS.
“The US promising they will never invade a non-nuclear Iran but if they go nuclear it will just increase possibility of confrontation” that is freekin stupid simply because yes it sounds simple and rational and all but that is the whole problem Iran’s Mullahs are not rational they are religious zealots on a mission from god with glowing aurora’s and all. If they were rational like the Communist Soviets who valued LIFE maybe we could consider containment and play the long slow game. Just IF is not an answer.
If we are so convinced we cant take the land battle at this time to Iran then we should go full alt air assault to hell if it solidifies the Iranian Mullah support. Degrade the Iranian military and decapitate the leadership. Invade the Iranian Islands in the Persian gulf and tactical S Iran areas to secure the shipping take over the SW Iranian oil region. After that continue to beat the Iranian military from the air into the ground cripple their ability to move weaken the state kill all available leaders, military bases, police stations, electric stations, roads, bridges, railroads, sow complete insane chaos and work with rebels willing to fight what is left of the Mullah control in their area.
With this plan we will either end up with a massive bad lands that will be good for terrorist but they at least they wont have WMD factories rolling while we wonder. Any open training camps or such will be wide open to air strike or quick strike with ground forces. I would rather have a humiliated broken into pieces chaos zone called Iran than a Mullah ran nuclear-armed Iran with China/Russia doing the Weapons for Oil at full speed.
Besides Iran’s main weapon are terrorist groups around the world. We are at war with terrorist all around the world but the nations they hide in wont clean them out. When we hit Iran and their proxies come out of hiding and go all out, groups across the ME will jump Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Yemen, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Turkey, Iraq (Sadr), Pakistan, W Bank/Gaza (Hamas, PFLP, IJ), Lebanon (Hezbollah) and all across Europe (Islamic Radicals).
This will enable US to respond amass Israel will crush Hezbollah and Hamas we will crush Sadr and whatever Sadamist and AQ jump, Europe will be forced to make a full attack on the radicals amongst them the rest of the ME will be forced for their own survival to get off the fence and ally with US and like Europe attack the Radicals amongst them (this has already been proven in piece meal by Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Egypt, Jordan).
The biggest problem we have had so far with the WOT is the fact our enemy wont come out and fight but in piece meal, Iran will draw out all the big boys for a final stand that will be bloody but will result in one of two things victory or defeat. The Iranian pres is right in a way that this will be a last battle because it will force the Radicals everywhere to make a all out push that will hurt but will be containable and defeat able. Otherwise this WOT will grind on forever because until your enemy makes his full push and is broken he will never surrender his will wont be broken (Iran will start that full push & it will be up to US to crush that Push with our new allies of opportunity from Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Europe ect..).
At Mon May 01, 07:23:00 PM, Jeff said…
Yes, I had a similar thought, that the report was good for an understanding of Iranian politics, but as you say, their answer for Iran seemed to be talking and giving them concessions.
There doesn't seem to be much dispute that Iran could, and would, unleash its terror proxies if attacked. Yet, no one seems to connect the dots and ask if it would be a good idea to let such a nation, a nation so willing to use terror, gain nuclear weapons.
At Mon May 01, 07:30:00 PM, C-Low said…
I forgot to mention that the outside terrorist groups once started will continue but I believe Iran will not have to be degraded to the point of absolute insane chaos before either a “revolution” will take over or a new leader from within the Mullahs will step forward to negotiate a surrender on our terms with US.
If it’s a revolution best-case scenario. We pour weapons and air support with SOF and more if needed to assist their march to victory or at least such in their zone of influence. Think Kurdistan pre-GW2. We could easily see such in SE, SW, & NW Iran with a degraded central government ability to check it and US air shield and support above.
If it’s a humbled Mullah who signs then we write a strict treaty with restrictions on Iranian military capability and write in inspections with teeth and pre-written clear consequences for non-compliance.
Worst-case scenario Iran people solidify we end up in entrenched defensive positions all around Iran and we go to the containment policy. We continue our over flights attacking at will anything we consider a threat or possible future threat.
We were attacked multiple times and finally we engaged in this war on 9-11 when we hit Iraq we made the beachfront for victory Iran countered and upped the ante with their nuclear program and even open admission to not only proliferate such but openly meet and ally with terrorist groups the world over. Cementing such with statements of how they will retaliate. We have now seen the full potential of our enemy it is time to drive to victory if we dally or turn and we will be chased down and killed like the cowards we would be.
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=150386&D=2006-05-01&HC=2
This above article has the money quote that says all we should need to decide at the end.
“Here, the Iranian source hesitated before saying with worry; this stage might represent the beginning of a world war, given that extremists will seek to maximize civilian casualties by exploding germ and chemical bombs as well as dirty nuclear bombs across western and Arab cities.”
Yeah just hope when they get nukes it will be all OK based on if we just all can get along BS.
At Mon May 01, 07:41:00 PM, C-Low said…
I agree Jeff I really don’t understand why no one sees the obvious threat we face. I understand the regular American who gets his news from the Media but I am woefully disappointed in our leadership on both sides.
The Dems answer is "well its Bush's fault we cant do anything to Iran" like they would if we could. The Repubs answer is "well we got mid-terms and blah blah blah".
Do these "leaders" really not understand we are looking at a true nuclear war if we kick this can?
Where the hell is FDR calling for the nation to prepare for a confrontation with a rising enemy? Calling for the support of our few allies so they can fight and win. Calling for our nation to begin regearing for large-scale war. Calling out the isolationist, anarchist, and others for being what they were not-fit-for-leadership in our time of need. All of this in the face of an isolationist movement that was much stronger than our anti-war movement of today.
At Mon May 01, 10:12:00 PM, Jeff said…
I can understand that leaders are reluctant to strike Iran, because it is obvious there probably won't be a quick strike, bang it's done and over.
Iran will probably retaliate, and things escalate, and who knows where it goes.
But, Iran has been committing acts of war against us since 1979. This same theocracy is pursuing nuclear weapons. It may be down to act now, within the next year, or it will be too late.
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