A road to war, not a leap

Israel finds itself in a widening conflict, and at these early stages it is difficult to predict when and where it will end. Hamas has provoked Israel from Gaza, and Hezbollah is attacking Israel from Lebanon.

It's always useful to keep in mind the following equation: Hezbollah = Iran. Hezbollah was established by Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Lebanon, and Iran provides funds and weapons to Hezbollah. Hezbollah is Iran's proxy along the eastern Mediterranean.

For instance you may recall in early 2002 a ship, the Karine-A, was intercepted by Israeli forces. It was bringing weapons in for Arafat's PLO. Reports say Hezbollah was involved in the transaction, and the ship was initially loaded off the coast of Iran.

The operations that started the recent violence were not off the cuff larks. They were planned, especially Hezbollah's incursion. And if Hezbollah is involved, if Hezbollah has carried out planned attacks on Israel, one must ask why Iran would want to spark such a confrontation, for Iran surely is involved.

One can look back and see dots that beg to be connected. Consider.

October 26, 2005 - At the "World without Zionism" conference, Iranian President Ahmadinejad says Israel should be "wiped off the map". This is the beginning of pointed public comments threatening Israel. Was Ahmadinejad contemplating provoking a conflict with Israel?

November 15, 2006 - Iran's foreign minister meets in Damascus with representatives of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah. Seven days later, Hezbollah fires rockets and mortars at Israel from Lebanon.

January 19, 2006 - A suicide bomber from Islamic Jihad attacks a Tel Aviv restaurant, and thankfully kills only himself. At least 20 are wounded.

January 20, 2006 - Ahmadinejad goes to Damascus, and while there meets with representatives of terrorist groups. Was it a war council? RFE/RL says (empahisis mine):

Among the individuals he met, Lebanon's Al-Manar television reported on 20 January, were Hizballah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) leader Ramadan Abdallah Shallah, and Hamas Political Bureau chief Khalid Mishaal. These three visited Tehran in August, September, and December 2005, respectively. Ahmadinejad also met Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine -- General Command (PFLP-GC) Secretary-General Ahmad Jibril.

The fact that Islamic Jihad carried out a terrorist attack in Israel the day before Ahmadinejad met with terrorist groups, including Islamic Jihad, could not have been an accident. It was a message for Israel.

Michael Ledeen reported that Imad Mugniyah was among those seen with Ahmadinejad in Damascus. Mugniyah is Hezbollah's chief of military operations, and is believed to be very much involved with the current violence.

February 11, 2006 - In a speech to a large crowd commemorating the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, Ahmadinejad again said Israel will be removed.

February 28, 2006 - Iran agrees to provide at least $50 million in aid to Hamas to make up for any cuts in foreign aid.

April 14-17, 2006 - Teheran hosts a three day forum on Palestinian solidarity. Ayatollah Khamenei says Muslims should help the Palestinian people. Ahmadinejad says Israel was "a rotten, dried tree that will be eliminated by one storm".

April 14, 2006 - Iran's Rafsanjani, head of the Expediency Council, goes to Damascus and while there meets with representativs of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah.

April 17, 2006 - A suicide bomber from Islamic Jihad attacks the very same restaurant in Tel Aviv that was attacked in January, and this time kills nine people. Again, the close proximity to another Iranian visit to Syria, and the target, cannot be a coincidence.

May 11, 2006 - Speaking in Indonesia, Ahmadinejad says Israel "one day will vanish".

May 28, 2006 - Rockets are fired into Israel from Lebanon, and a Hezbollah sniper kills an Israeli soldier.

June 17, 2006 - Iran and Syria sign a defense cooperation agreement. They say it is aimed at Israel and the United States.

July 7, 2006 - At an anti-Israel rally in Teheran, Ahmadinejad says "They should not let things reach a point where an explosion occurs in the Islamic world. If an explosion occurs, then it will not be limited to geographical boundaries. It will also burn all those who created [Israel] over the past 60 years."

This is not an exhaustive list, but it should give you reason to believe that Iran has been working towards a confrontation with Israel. If this is so, it may get worse before it gets better, for Iran would not invest so much merely to annoy and harrass Israel.

IranFocus has this report (emphasis mine):

Israeli military commanders have become increasingly concerned about Hizbollah's activities in southern Lebanon since Syria was forced to withdraw its forces last year. In recent months, Hizbollah has built a network of sophisticated control towers and monitoring stations along the length of the border with Israel.

The new equipment, which has cost tens of millions of pounds, was paid for by Iran. Israeli officers have reported frequent sightings of Iranian military officials inspecting the new facilities and advising local Hizbollah commanders.

Although Hizbollah claims to be a Lebanese political party, it continues to function as an independent, armed militia in southern Lebanon where it was originally established in the 1980s by Iran's Revolutionary Guards.

Hizbollah continues to enjoy close links with Iran to the extent that Israeli commanders regard the northern border as their "front line" with Iran.

In the past few months, Hizbollah militiamen have made several abortive attempts to kidnap Israeli soldiers. In one incident earlier this year 20 Hizbollah militiamen stormed a farm house close to the border in the mistaken belief that a group of Israeli soldiers had taken shelter inside. They were victims of an elaborate trap set by the Israeli army and most of the Hizbollah attackers were killed in the ensuing shoot-out.

Vital Perspective points out this troubling news:

Israel has concrete evidence that Hezbollah plans to transfer the two Israel Defense Forces soldiers abducted Wednesday to Iran, Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev said Thursday.

"We have concrete evidence that Hezbollah plans to transfer the kidnapped soldiers to Iran. As a result, Israel views Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran as the main players in the axis of terror and hate that endangers not only Israel, but the entire world," AFP quoted Deputy Director General of the Foreign Ministry Gideon Meir as saying.

Today, there are reports that Hezbollah has launched rockets at Haifa.

And today, Michael Ledeen writes:

Iran has been at war with us all along, because that’s what the world’s leading terror state does. The scariest thing about this moment is that the Iranians have convinced themselves that they are winning, and we are powerless to reverse the tide. As I reported here several months ago, Khamenei told his top people late last year that the Americans and Israelis are both politically paralyzed. Neither can take decisive action against Iran, neither can sustain prolonged conflict and significant casualties. Meanwhile, the Supreme Leader said, the terrorists are all working for Iran, and we will expand the terror war.

Don’t think for a moment that they worry about victims in Gaza or Lebanon. They are delighted to see Israel fighting on two fronts, because they will use the pictures from the battlefield to consolidate their hold over the fascist forces in the region. After a few days of fighting, I would not be surprised to see some new kind of terrorist attack against Israel, or against an American facility in the region. An escalation to chemical weapons, for example, or even the fulfillment of the longstanding Iranian promise to launch something nuclear at Israel. They meant it when they said it, don’t you know?

The only way we are going to win this war is to bring down those regimes in Tehran and Damascus, and they are not going to fall as a result of fighting between their terrorist proxies in Gaza and Lebanon on the one hand, and Israel on the other. Only the United States can accomplish it.

Indeed. Are we up to it, this, the challenge of our generation?